These two words have been occupying space in my head for some time now and seem to be begging for some sort of explanation. I have no idea where this will go, so let me explore them.

There seems to be a correlation between predictable and predictability. One seems more fact based and the other more like a weatherman – hit and miss.

The correlation goes like this: Seasons are predictable but the predictability of early June being this hot on the east coast isn’t.

But it gets more complicated when you’re not talking about the weather.

For example: Human nature is predictable; but the predictability of a specific storm isn’t.

I’m always sadly amused when someone tries to explain why someone did something awful, like a mass shooting. When we see the back story on the individual, most of us could have predicted they were an accident waiting to happen, but the predictability of when they would self destruct is a guessing game, like the weather.

You may have a better guessing mechanism than others when it comes to predicting future events that are unpredictable, but even you get the unexpected wind blowing in your face.

So what’s the best use of predictable and predictability?

When you have the recognition that something is about to happen but you don’t know when, that’s the time to plan for contingencies.

Life insurance is one of those plans. You know you’re going to go, but not when.

Planning for contingencies will never happen when we buy into the illusion that predictable events will only happen to other people. It’s a game of denial we all play to some degree. When you see dark clouds on the horizon, that’s time to seek shelter, not bet against the odds.

When we don’t consider contingencies, we are at the mercy of the elements.

This applies to all areas of our lives – family, business, careers, relationships, etc.

The great musical poet, Bob Dylan wrote these words: “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”

We are all pretty adept at predicting the predictable, but we come up short preparing contingencies.

The old advice is pretty apt here: If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, you would be well served to have a plan to duck, especially if these wild ducks look like they are about to fly overhead and make a deposit on you.

When you hope against hope, you hang yourself with your own rope.

If contingency is currently not in your dictionary, may I highly recommend that you buy an up-to-date volume. That way, you become like a savvy sailor and can move out of harm’s way no matter which way the wind blows.

All the best,

John

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